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The reason is simple a government default would destroy the credit system as we know it.

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Politicians reacted by devising an international financial system after WWII in which default and bankruptcy were more or less impossible.

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Last week, Portugal joined Greece and Ireland in seeking an official bailout to avoid a default that would undermine Europe s banking system.

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And this concentration of public debt on banks balance sheets is what makes the entire European banking system so vulnerable to a sovereign default.

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After the Greek Default

Why Greece Will Default

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Credit Default Swaps on Trial

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This scalability was magnified by the use of credit default swaps (CDSs), which offered phony insurance against default.

It led directly to the spread of financial risk management models, which, by excluding the possibility of default, grossly underestimated the amount of risk in the system.

Either banks need to default on their senior obligations, or the government will need to default alongside the banks.

Second, banks would also suffer because they had sold insurance against default in the form of credit default swaps.

How to Default on Sovereign Debt

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At that point, they will default.

The EU s Rules to Default By

At that point, Greece will default.

Such institutional reforms would go a long way toward eliminating default (or bailout) risk and creating a market oriented financial system of balanced incentives that supports growth and innovation.

This was deemed a credit event, so credit default swaps were exercised anyone who insured against default had to pay out.

The official line so far has been no default, meaning no sovereign default or that of any bank can be considered.

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Nor does Greece s default history inspire confidence.

Signs of default stress are already showing.

Predictions of outright default are far fetched.

As lenders, banks lose when borrowers default.

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What resulted was a wonderful system for diversifying individual bank risk, but only by magnifying the default risk of all banks that held what came to be called toxic debt.

That s why market interest rates on privately held Greek bonds and prices for credit default swaps indicate that a massive default is coming.