But markets are already assigning a high probability to a Greek default.

So it will take a Herculean effort, luck, and support from the European Union and the IMF to reduce the probability of an eventual default and exit from the eurozone.

Indeed, because standard measures of the probability of default fall when the economy is doing well and rise when it is not, capital requirements based on these measures tend to be pro cyclical.

Otherwise, it outputs YES with probability 1 2 and NO with probability 1 2.

To do so, executive payoffs could be made dependent on changes in the value of the banks credit default swaps, which reflect the probability that the bank will not have sufficient capital to meet its full obligations.

In probability theory and statistics, the coefficient of variation (CV) is a standardized measure of dispersion of a probability distribution or frequency distribution.

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With four or more points, the probability is high for LQTS with one point or less, the probability is low.

In fact, as psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown, there is a systematic human tendency to downgrade the perceived probability of low probability events, so that people go about their lives as if the probability of these events occurrence is zero.

When the absolute value of this function is squared, it gives the probability that a particle will be observed near a location a probability density.

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(a) Risk of causing significant transboundary harm includes risks taking the form of a high probability of causing significant transboundary harm and a low probability of causing disastrous transboundary harm

This suggests that a probability of life appearing is reasonably high.

As a result, the probability of a eurozone disaster is rising.

If Europe credibly volunteered funds to buy back all Greek debt, the Greek risk premium would disappear and private investors would be fully bailed out. Only the probability of a default and the goal of avoiding even deeper haircuts can induce investors to liquidate their positions at a discount.

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This scalability was magnified by the use of credit default swaps (CDSs), which offered phony insurance against default.

Marcus Hutter's Universal Artificial Intelligence References External links Ray Solomonoff's Homepage For a detailed description of Algorithmic Probability, see Algorithmic Probability by Hutter, Legg and Vitanyi in the scholarpedia.

) The lower the ratio is, the greater the probability of prostate cancer.

There is a probability that the ancestor of chess was mentioned there.

Second, banks would also suffer because they had sold insurance against default in the form of credit default swaps.

The network probability matrix models random graphs through edge probabilities, which represent the probability formula_9 that a given edge formula_10 exists for a specified time period.

Signs of default stress are already showing.

Predictions of outright default are far fetched.

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After the Greek Default

Why Greece Will Default

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In those with fewer than three of these symptoms the probability is 17 .

The official line so far has been no default, meaning no sovereign default or that of any bank can be considered.

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Credit Default Swaps on Trial

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BEIJING In the last 200 years, there have been more than 250 cases of sovereign debt default, and 68 cases of domestic debt default.

Either banks need to default on their senior obligations, or the government will need to default alongside the banks.

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Experts argue that the probability of a terrorist attack because of the Dubai takeover is small.