The Global Implications of Falling Commodity Prices

After all, energy is a global commodity.

Mr. Sherban Leonardo Cretoiu, Programme Manager, Global Players, Fundação Dom Cabral, Brazil

Apart from commodity exports, it has little to offer to the global economy.

Ms. Valerie Weinzierl, Senior Project Manager, Global Institute for Partnership and Governance, World Economic Forum, Cologny, Switzerland

But this neglects global inflation driven by rising commodity prices, which has been increasingly evident.

China s 4 trillion stimulus package, unveiled in November 2008, restored confidence in global commodity markets.

And emerging markets will suffer once the US contraction and global slowdown undermines commodity prices.

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Rising energy and commodity prices helped create the global food crisis, which fed the financial crisis.

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As long as China s commodity demand grows at a higher rate than global supply, prices will rise.

Admittedly, the global commodity price boom has had profound, albeit enormously complex and uncertain, effects on poverty.

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Ultimately, emerging economies absolute size and rate of growth both matter in charting commodity demand and the future trajectory of global commodity prices, with per capita income clearly linked to consumers wealth.

More consumption and less heavy industry will also reduce China s demand for raw materials, dampening global commodity prices.

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Commodity export prices are at record levels, global liquidity has been ample, and international interest rates have been low.

If anything, inflation is now falling further globally as commodity prices adjust downward in response to weak global growth.

Today, a deepening global divide sets the slow growing US against many emerging market economies and commodity producing countries.

We know that as the cost of this commodity rise, so the growth rate of the global economy decreases.

Meanwhile, new energy extraction technologies, combined with a softer trajectory for global growth, are having a marked impact on commodity prices, cutting deeply into the surpluses of commodity exporters from Argentina to Saudi Arabia.

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NEW YORK The decade long commodity price boom has come to an end, with serious implications for global GDP growth.

A general rise in global demand will simply spill over into higher commodity prices, with little helpful effect on consumption.

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Indeed, demographically, Russia is undergoing a dramatic decline. Apart from commodity exports, it has little to offer to the global economy.

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True, when today s global economic boom ends, as it inevitably will, commodity prices will plummet, easily 25 , quite possibly 50 or more.

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Many sell raw materials or base products Ukrainian steel, for example where export competitiveness depends less on product quality than on global commodity prices.

Today, however, with Asia s giants, India and China, joining the global economy, prices for oil, gold, wheat, and virtually every other commodity are exploding.

Germany will soon be in the same situation. Meanwhile, new energy extraction technologies, combined with a softer trajectory for global growth, are having a marked impact on commodity prices, cutting deeply into the surpluses of commodity exporters from Argentina to Saudi Arabia.

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