If that happens, the chance of an actual US default would be much higher than it is today.

But markets today think there is a 50 chance that Greece will default within the next five years and a 25 chance that Ireland will do so.

But the buyback can succeed only if the market perceives it as the last chance before a unilateral debt restructuring. In other words, a successful buyback is a preamble to default.

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This scalability was magnified by the use of credit default swaps (CDSs), which offered phony insurance against default.

That's how project Uma Chance (A Chance) started.

Second, banks would also suffer because they had sold insurance against default in the form of credit default swaps.

Signs of default stress are already showing.

Predictions of outright default are far fetched.

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After the Greek Default

Why Greece Will Default

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The Cruelty of Chance

The official line so far has been no default, meaning no sovereign default or that of any bank can be considered.

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Credit Default Swaps on Trial

The Euro Zone s Default Position

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There's no chance of winning.

BEIJING In the last 200 years, there have been more than 250 cases of sovereign debt default, and 68 cases of domestic debt default.

Fat Chance

Hu s Chance

Either banks need to default on their senior obligations, or the government will need to default alongside the banks.

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How to Default on Sovereign Debt

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At that point, they will default.

The EU s Rules to Default By

At that point, Greece will default.

We have little chance of winning.

Rouhani s Lost Chance

Erdoğan s Second Chance

Bush s Last Chance

Europe s Last Chance