The Kremlin s Tragic Miscalculation

But he is not immune to miscalculation.

If so, China is making a serious miscalculation.

There are already some worrying signs of a Japanese miscalculation.

The second important miscalculation concerned the likely global reaction to America s exercise of its hegemonic power.

While Japan s security treaty with the US serves as a deterrent, there is always a danger of miscalculation.

The threat from North Korea has always been that it might start another war, whether by miscalculation or design.

As China escalates its campaign of attrition against a resolute Japan, it increases the risk of armed conflict, whether by accident or miscalculation.

By failing to clearly delineate presumed or potential red lines for Taiwan, the law leaves open the possibility of substantial miscalculation or misinterpretation.

In their view, the decision to eliminate Mr. Hariri was a strategic miscalculation , not dissimilar to other miscalculations made by the Syrian Government.

Sadly, he now appears poised to make another serious political miscalculation, because he is backing a radical constitutional reform aimed at creating a purely presidential system.

But, given the profound uncertainty of a world in flux, as well as the dangers of miscalculation as the Soviet empire collapsed, prudent management trumped grand visions.

The Iranian regime s analysis might prove a dangerous miscalculation, because it is likely to lead sooner rather than later to a hot confrontation that Iran simply cannot win.

Moreover, there is the real risk of proliferation, especially in the Middle East, multiplying the dangers that nuclear weapons will be used by accident or miscalculation as well as design.

While outright military conflict is still considered unlikely, the combination of China s vague red lines and non specific threats will certainly raise the likelihood of miscalculation and misinterpretation on both sides.

I am concerned, that in the absence of concrete action, the situation could escalate and, by intent or as a result of a miscalculation, lead to another round of devastating hostilities.

This overconfidence in foreign policy, combined with insecurity in domestic affairs, may combine to explain the change in Chinese behavior in the latter part of 2009. If so, China is making a serious miscalculation.

A key component of the rebalance is a healthy, stable, and continuous military to military relationship with China, based on sustained and substantive dialogue that enhances our ability to work together and to avoid any kind of miscalculation.

So it should be obvious that maintaining the status quo is intolerable. Moreover, there is the real risk of proliferation, especially in the Middle East, multiplying the dangers that nuclear weapons will be used by accident or miscalculation as well as design.

Should Iran acquire nuclear weapons, the prospect of a regional arms race (starting with Saudi Arabia) and thus heightened risk of nuclear war by accident, design, or miscalculation is very much greater than is the risk of further proliferation in Northeast Asia.

This systematic miscalculation can be explained as follows. From the 2006 war in Lebanon to the recent deadly raid on a Gaza bound flotilla, Israeli leaders have badly appreciated the ratio between military gains and political risks, and the necessary proportionality between the two.

The US does not have a national interest in helping Taiwan become a sovereign country with a seat at the UN, and efforts by some Taiwanese to do so present the greatest danger of a miscalculation that could create enmity between the US and China.