The large, high growth emerging economies have certain advantages.

But these are not sufficient to rebalance the economy and restore its growth momentum.

The historical record shows that rapid monetary growth does fuel high inflation.

Growth momentum has fizzled and, with inflation persistently high, Indian producers are struggling to compete in world markets.

So China has reached a crucial juncture without painful structural adjustment, its economic growth momentum can suddenly be lost.

Just waiting for the high growth developing countries to catch up with the advanced countries is even less of a solution.

After an initial inflationary surge, American economic growth fell off sharply in the 1970 s.

Developing the service sector could also diversify the production base, thereby enhancing economic resilience and boosting growth momentum.

But that will not happen unless the world s resource supplies and environmental underpinnings collapse. So the baseline is high emerging market growth, the key to which is innovation and adjustment of the growth path.

Countries run into trouble when they do not use high growth periods to strengthen their institutional underpinnings.

Change in the global economy, from a decade of high structural growth to a long period of low growth, is playing a major role as well.

Third, while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America s growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011.

Every new major technological idea the steam engine, railways, or the personal computer adds up to a boost to growth.

Obviously, growth has not been inclusive the rising tide has left many boats behind. This is simply unsustainable.

Europe could re engineer the eurozone to enable debt sustainability and high economic growth.

Changing the economy s growth model or supply side structure, as labor costs rise, global market shares become large enough to limit expansion, and advanced countries growth momentum slows for an unknown period of time

Unlike most countries, China has not struggled to get public sector investment up to levels that support sustained high growth.

The Government of Pakistan has launched a 25 year energy security plan to respond to that high growth rate and to meet the rising demand for energy.

Sustained high growth is enabled by and requires engagement with the global economy that goes beyond simply being able to produce for a potentially massive export market.

The last time China saw such high growth in domestic investment, the savings rate was not as high as it is now.

High growth and urbanization have caused rapid rises in incomes in urban areas, with smaller increases in the rural areas.

So, while there may be fewer economic collapses, owing to better macroeconomic management, high growth will likely remain episodic and exceptional.

Three regions have collectively accounted for 83 of America s export led growth impetus over the past three years Asia, Latin America, and Europe.

It is fragile it could easily be spoiled.

All elementary particles have a characteristic spin, for example electrons always have spin 1 2 while photons always have spin 1 .

If SOEs reinvested income is not subject to a high return criterion, growth will eventually slow.

It provided a surplus of yield seeking capital from investors in developed countries, thereby allowing emerging economies to remain on high growth trajectories.

China s High Income Hopes

Upper middle income GNI per capita between 2,936 and 9,075.

Indeed, the post crisis shortfall in domestic demand is causing stubbornly high unemployment, even as the economy recovers some of its growth momentum.

I only hope that policymakers vigilance will prevail (and be improved upon), enabling China s high growth story to continue for another 10, 20, or 30 years.

At the same time, high economic growth, while indispensable, is not sufficient for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and the objectives set out in the global conferences and summits of the 1990s.

Changing the economy s growth model or supply side structure, as labor costs rise, global market shares become large enough to limit expansion, and advanced countries growth momentum slows for an unknown period of time

The government is struggling to upgrade education and technical training, to privatize commercial and industrial enterprises, to improve health services, to diversify exports, to promote tourism, and to reduce the high population growth rate.

If high national debt is associated with slow economic growth, is it because excessive debt impedes growth, or because slow growth causes countries to accumulate more debt?

Moreover, the relatively high population growth rate 24.5 births per 1,000 is leading to an increase in the number of young people as a percentage of the total population.

At the same time, it is vital that we seize the momentum for reform.

The momentum of debates around the world was considered an encouraging prospect.

But continued high growth in emerging markets depends on avoiding a second major downturn in the advanced economies, which continue to absorb a large (though declining) share of their exports. Slow growth is manageable.

There may be other factors that could slow down or interrupt China s growth. I only hope that policymakers vigilance will prevail (and be improved upon), enabling China s high growth story to continue for another 10, 20, or 30 years.

Economic growth improved marginally in 2004 in the developing economies of South and South West Asia on the relatively high rate attained the previous year despite poor weather in South Asia and the higher cost of oil.

Since 1978, China, by implementing major reforms, has achieved three periods of high TFP growth, each lasting 5 7 years.

Skeptics worry that the economic progress may not last, arguing that the high growth rate is simply a reflection of loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus a strategy that inflation will render unsustainable.

Doing so would not only sustain the growth momentum of these economies, but would contribute to global recovery by generating much needed additional demand in the developed countries.

Furthermore, the different subregions of ESCAP as well as the individual economies are likely to respond very differently to the challenges of maintaining the present growth momentum, as highlighted below.