The private sector has typically stayed out, owing to long cost recovery periods, small market size, and lack of consumer credit.

The same holds for households, with millions of weaker and poorer borrowers defaulting on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and other forms of consumer credit.

In addition to the downturn in real estate, a broader bubble in consumer credit is now collapsing as the US economy slips into recession, defaults on credit cards, auto loans, and student loans will increase sharply.

In addition to tighter credit, falling home prices and high unemployment will continue to put a crimp on US consumer spending.

Losses are spreading from sub prime to near prime and prime mortgages, commercial mortgages, and unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, auto loans, student loans).

(d) Consumer Lending (CLP)

Consumer fraud

Given how financially stretched US households are, a good part of this tax rebate may be used to pay down high credit card balances (or other unsecured consumer credit) or to postpone mortgage delinquency.

Credit Where Credit is Due

It is the flow of credit that is important, and the reason that the failure of banks during the Great Depression was important is that they were involved in determining creditworthiness they were the repositories of information necessary for the maintenance of the flow of credit.

Real personal consumer spending grew at a robust 4.4 rate, as spending on consumer durables soared by 21 .

The 2013 report includes quantitative data grouped in 11 sets of indicators, ranging from the ease of starting a business to the availability of credit.

But the macroeconomic weakness in the US now goes beyond the decreased supply of credit. Falling house prices reduce household wealth and therefore consumer spending.

That key point appears all but lost on the consumer recovery crowd.

Rural Credit

Credit

The past relationship between wealth and consumer spending implies that each 100 of additional wealth raises consumer spending by about four dollars, so 2.5 trillion of additional wealth would raise consumer spending by roughly 100 billion.

As part of the annual reworking of the US National Income and Product Accounts that was released in July 2011, Commerce Department statisticians slashed their earlier estimates of consumer spending.

Banks and credit card companies have become much more cautious about extending credit.

The supply of credit, in other words, resulted from the demand for credit.

Credit histories cannot be shared, because a credit bureau is just getting started.

But these are impeding the consumer spending needed to boost economic activity and kick start growth.

Unfortunately, the projected recovery in consumer spending didn t occur.

Credit risk is best hedged through diversification across uncorrelated credits.

Credit stopped flowing.

Unfreezing Credit

(a) Credit and security structure

Limited access to credit

Recent data on consumer spending in the United States have been terrible.

Gains in inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditure have averaged a mere 0.8 over the past five years the most severe and protracted slowdown in consumer demand growth in the post World War II era.

These reforms require the sacrifice of certain kinds of protections, as well as of income and consumption growth.

The key driver of the increase in final sales was a strong rise in consumer spending.

Higher domestic consumer spending would otherwise create inflationary pressures.

Consumption demand for luxury goods is unlikely to solve the problem.

Students protest, sometimes alongside trade unions, against the consumer society.

If that decline continues, it will inevitably reduce the pace of consumer spending.

Germany s Secret Credit Addiction

Consider also the credit markets.

The third tool is credit policy.

Making room for increased consumer spending requires reducing the level of exports by allowing the currency to appreciate.

To raise consumer spending, the Chinese government must reverse both of these trends.

The alternative an increase in interest rates would undermine both consumption and productive investment.

Consumer spending is particularly robust, as wages show signs of upward movement.

Lower share prices will now have negative effects on consumer spending and business investment.

China s Credit Overdose