Saving Ukraine

Betting on Ukraine

Kyiv is the capital of Ukraine.

The good news is that the public largely understands and supports the government s reform efforts. The bad news is that Ukraine still faces considerable destabilizing threats beginning with a renewed Russian military offensive.

Even if no such conflict erupts, Putin s attempts to restore Russian influence across Eurasia (by whatever means necessary, if his actions in Ukraine are any indication) will be highly damaging. It should be no surprise that Kazakhstan and Belarus are as wary of Russian expansionism as Ukraine.

At its heart, the conflict in Ukraine is about a disagreement over NATO s expansion into what Russia regards as its near abroad. Fortunately, a solution is possible but it will require a reworking of Europe s security architecture.

Putin gained the upper hand early in the crisis with the annexation of Crimea. Now, in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, he is shrewdly forcing a divided and risk averse West to choose between war and accommodation.

LONDON The leaders of Russia and Ukraine will meet in Astana, Kazakstan, on January 15 to discuss, once again, an end to the fighting that has roiled eastern Ukraine s Donbas region since last spring. Hopes for a viable agreement are not high.

The current government in Ukraine has an unprecedented electoral mandate for change. It has also drawn into public service some of the country s best and brightest (including from the Ukrainian diaspora) to fight a war and stave off an economic meltdown simultaneously.

The result was an unnecessarily deep and protracted recession. Now, they are about to make the same mistake in Ukraine, with even more devastating potential consequences.

Despite the depth of Ukraine s plight, Europe cannot avoid taking up the challenge that Putin has set before it. After all, if Putin succeeds in turning Ukraine into a failed state with a frozen conflict embedded within it, he will seek the same outcome all along the EU s borders, from Estonia to Greece.

One reason why the crisis in Ukraine has proved so difficult to overcome is that its roots stretch far outside the country s borders. Finding a genuine solution will require the resolution of a dispute between Russia and the West that dates back to the 1990s, before Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power.