The US and Iran could go to war not over nuclear issues but because of reckless behavior by the Revolutionary Guards (as occurred recently in the Strait of Hormuz), with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad possibly seeking to provoke a crisis in order to distract domestic attention from his economic failures.

Fortunately, in his second term, with Condoleezza Rice and Karen Hughes at the State Department and Rumsfeld s reputation dented by failures that in the private sector would have led to his firing or resignation, Bush has shown an increased concern about America s soft power.

But the real danger which even Hollande s sternest critics may be underestimating is not so much his individual policy failings (serious though they may be) as his approach to the twin challenges posed by France s economic imbalances and the eurozone crisis.