Over periods of several years, our models do better.

Our models are, to put it bluntly, useless for predicting currency movements over a few weeks or months.

It is not clear how we could know that markets were failing whenever they fell significantly, but believed that we had no business second guessing them when they climbed.

Finding a new and stable relationship between the financial authorities and private firms will depend crucially on a reworking of our intellectual models.

Our models show that in the absence of therapy, cancer cells that haven t evolved resistance will proliferate at the expense of the less fit resistant cells.

We've based the design of our settlements, our business models, our transport plans, even the idea of economic growth, some would argue, on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.

It is, again, worse than we thought, and, despite our failing models, we will gamble on knowing just what to do cut CO2 emissions dramatically.

The first thing to say about this is that one should be skeptical about economists predictions, especially those concerning the near term. Our models are, to put it bluntly, useless for predicting currency movements over a few weeks or months.